Dein erstes Forum » too fast or not." Brad Kes

Each round of the playoffs, I like to forecast the round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. It offers no assurances and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. Last year, this method forecasted the first round at a 7-1 clip; this year it was 5-3, with losses on Columbus, Colorado and San Jose. In the first two cases, their strong goaltending led to a calculated advantage, but it can be difficult for goaltending superiority to take effect over much larger samples, let alone seven games. As for the Sharks, they were in a virtual toss-up situation with the Kings, favoured by the smallest of margins. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, Boston had 32.1 shots on goal per game and Montreal has allowed 28.6 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 30.35 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Bruins. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for Round Two: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Boston 32.1 29.3 Tuukka Rask 0.933 15.93 Montreal 30.9 28.6 Carey Price 0.925 14.12 Verdict: The Bruins are favoured, with a slightly better shot differential and slightly better goaltending, and its simple enough that way. But when the Habs and Bruins meet in the playoffs, strange things can happen. Higher-seeded Canadiens teams have been bounced by lower-seeded Bruins teams and vice versa. Between these two incarnations of the Canadiens and Bruins is a wonderful contrast in styles as the Bruins are more physically-imposing while the Canadiens are a smaller, skilled group. While some teams (including the Red Wings in Round One) avoid getting into confrontations with the Bruins, the Canadiens havent always taken that approach, and it not only makes for entertaining hockey, it adds some variability to the process. Furthermore, if the Canadiens can keep Tuukka Rask off his game (his .908 save percentage vs. Montreal is his lowest vs. teams that hes faced at least 10 times in his career), then that could help close the calculated gap between the teams. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Pittsburgh 30.4 29.1 Marc-Andre Fleury 0.915 16.66 N.Y. Rangers 33.1 29.1 Henrik Lundqvist 0.920 18.50 Verdict: The Penguins were forecasted to lose -- or, more accurately, score fewer goals -- against Columbus, but here they are in the second round, looking at a similar forecast, against a team with a better shot differential and better goaltending. The Penguins are healthier than theyve been for most of the season, which helps, and they have elite forwards that can shake results. The Rangers could control play and it wouldnt take a Henrik Lundqvist collapse to see the Penguins get through. All it might take is Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin going off for a few games. Heck, they managed to get past Columbus with contributions from a lot more than Crosby and Malkin. Defencemen Paul Martin and Matt Niskanen led the Penguins with eight points, Brandon Sutter added five and Beau Bennett chipped in four. In my playoff picks, I had the Penguins going past the Rangers and its on the expectation that, at some point, the Penguins elite players will bury more of their chances, though that also requires some faith in Marc-Andre Fleury and that hasnt been a safe feeling for the Penguins in the playoffs for quite some time. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Anaheim 31.0 28.8 Frederik Andersen 0.918 17.26 Los Angeles 31.6 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.915 17.33 Anaheim 31.0 28.8 Jonas Hiller 0.912 17.26 Los Angeles 31.6 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.915 18.60 Verdict: I presume that the Ducks are going back to rookie Frederik Andersen, even after he was pulled twice against Dallas in the first round (but I included calculations for Hiller anyway). This is another really close series in which the Kings get slightly favoured because they have superior shot differential. The Ducks have exceeded more advanced possession metrics all year, in part because they have been insanely fortunate when it comes to shooting in close games. Oh, and here too. That isnt the kind of thing that seems possible to repeat over time but, it worked enough to take down Dallas in the first round, so it wouldnt come as a shock if they can do it against Los Angeles. Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Chicago 32.9 27.8 Corey Crawford 0.919 18.15 Minnesota 27.2 27.4 Darcy Kuemper 0.914 15.59 Chicago 32.9 27.8 Corey Crawford 0.919 20.05 Minnesota 27.2 27.4 Ilya Bryzgalov 0.905 15.59 Verdict: Again, a presumption that the Wild will have Darcy Kuemper to start the series, despite leaving Game Seven against Colorado with an injury. If the Wild are really rolling with Ilya Bryzgalov, then the forecast will be unfavourable, just as it was in the first round, but if Kuemper is in, he offers a slightly better chance. No matter who is in net for the Wild, though, they will have their hands full, because they are facing a team that generates a whole lot more shots than their opponents. So long as Corey Crawford is decent, and there arent any major injuries, then the Blackhawks will warrant their status as prohibitive favourites. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. Cheap Swingman Kings Jerseys . Warren made six birdies and a bogey for a 5-under total of 139 to sit one shot ahead of Felipe Aguilar of Chile, who carded a 69. David Horsey of England was also on 5 under through 15 holes to join Warren atop the leaderboard before play was stopped. Cheap Kings Jerseys . Kyrie Irving and the Cleveland Cavaliers were left fretting over an MRI on the stars left knee. Paul George scored 21 points, Roy Hibbert added 19 and the Pacers used a dominant fourth quarter to blow out the Cavaliers 91-76 on Tuesday The Pacers (25-5) have won eight in a row over Cleveland, their longest active streak against any opponent. http://www.cheapsacramentokingsjerseys.com/ . "Last year we were in a ton of situations, late-game situations we couldnt pull out. Wed kind of fold under the pressure, get frustrated or let a big shot frustrate us," guard DeMar DeRozan said. Justin Jackson Jersey . In a series of tweets, it is explained by the Department of Player Safety that Niederreiter makes full body contact with Burrows and although there is head contact, he does not "pick" the head in the course of making the hit. Jack Cooley Jersey . The two teams will play through the completion of the game starting at 5pm ct on Wednesday. The regularly scheduled Wednesday night matchup will follow that and will now be seven innings.BROOKLYN, Mich. - Kevin Harvick made Michigan International Speedways latest track record look routine. In what is becoming an annual occurrence at MIS, Harvick pushed the tracks qualifying mark a little bit higher Friday, winning the pole for this weekends Sprint Cup race at 204.557 mph. Harvicks pole-winning speed was the fastest since Bill Elliott set the record of 212.809 mph at Talladega Superspeedway in April 1987. "This is one of those racetracks where youre running fast, but you really cant put it all in perspective, I guess, until you hit something," Harvick said. "Its so wide, its so fast and so smooth, but you dont really get that huge sensation of speed." Drivers have broken 200 mph with regularity at Michigan since the track was repaved before the 2012 season. Marcos Ambrose had a speed of 203.241 in 2012, the first time anyone won a pole at over 200 mph since Elliott did it before horsepower-sapping restrictor plates were introduced at Talladega and Daytona. Last August, Joey Logano increased the track record to 203.949. Harvick was even faster in winning his third pole of the year and ninth of his career. Points leader Jeff Gordon was second, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. was third. The top three qualifiers for Sundays 400-mile race were all in Chevrolets. NASCAR overhauled its qualifying process before this season, switching to a knockout format similar to Formula One and IndyCar. NASCAR now uses three rounds of qualifying at tracks 1 1/4 miles in length or larger. The entire field has 25 minutes to post their fastest single lap and the top 24 advance to the second round. The second segment lasts 10 minutes, and the fastest 12 advance to a final, 5-minute round. "This format has obviously been good for me to kind of, I guess, creep up on it as you go through the sessions," Harvick said.dddddddddddd "A fast car really solves a lot of problems." Harvick is 12th in the Cup standings, with victories at Phoenix and Darlington. The latter win came from the pole. His impressive performance Friday raised more questions about whether these increased speeds are any cause for concern. "Michigans been fast for a long time. How fast is too fast?" Harvick said. "The cars will slow down a tremendous amount when we get them in race trim and you get them in a pack, and its going to be quite a bit hotter on Sunday. Theyll slow down. Qualifying speeds are high. Its just a matter of whose opinion is taken on whether its too fast or not." Brad Keselowski, the 2012 series champion, outlined a couple of the issues raised by the high speeds. "How do the speeds affect our ability to pass and put on a race that our fans enjoy?" said Keselowski, who qualified sixth. "If were able to go 300 miles an hour and race side by side, that doesnt really matter to me. Its just the ability to do that — to have great side-by-side racing. And at this point, with the way aerodynamics have kind of taken over motorsports, we havent shown that ability." Theres also the issue of safety. "Weve shown time after time that the takeoff speed on these cars is about 185-190 miles an hour," Keselowski said. "As you cross that 210-, 220-mile threshold — certainly, you lose some speed as the car spins out, but wed really prefer to not have to lose any speed before the cars turn into airplanes." 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